Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity

Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity - Volton

Electricity demand has fallen to market levels under lockdown, with dramatic declines in services and industry only partially offset by higher residential use. Electricity demand showed the first signs of a recovery when confinement was eased in Italy and Germany in April. This trend was confirmed in May as more countries (India, France, Spain, UK) softened their lockdown measures. In June and July, weather-adjusted electricity demands remained 10% and 5% below the same month's 2019 level, respectively, in most countries except India, where the recovery was more pronounced.

In August, sustained recovery in electricity demand growth for EU countries , brought them closer to 2019 levels, but some containment measures continue to limit electricity demand in September. In October, electricity demand growth steadily recovered to 2019 levels in European countries before increased restrictions were announced again. In India, the recovery in electricity demand has been confirmed from the beginning of August with higher levels than in 2019, except for the last two weeks of August when demand fell below 2019 levels due to significant declines in industrialized states and the weather improved. In September 2020, adjusted electricity demand weather averaged 3.4% above September 2019, driven by higher demand in the industrial and commercial sectors, as well as higher irrigation demand compared to 2019. In October, relaxation of restrictions and a stronger economic environment caused electricity demand (weather corrected) to rise more than 10% above October 2019 levels; In all major regions, the electricity mix has shifted towards renewable energies following lockdown measures due to low electricity demand, lower operating costs and priority access to the grid through regulation. Electricity demand and mix is returning to previous trends with lockdown versions.

United States

In India

In China

In the EU

Natural gas production increased in the electricity mix, supported by low gas prices and high carbon prices; In mid-June, it became the second source of electricity generation after renewable energy to compensate for the decline in production from other energy sources. Nuclear production was as low as January to August 2020 as a date, as several units extended cuts due to delays caused by lockdowns. During the same period, coal power generation was also lower in most of the EU, both to meet lower demand levels and to phase out targets. Since the beginning of September, nuclear power generation has risen towards seasonal averages, while coal production levels have increased and are equivalent to 2019 levels. Due to strong wind conditions at the end of September and throughout October, renewable generation increased. Increasing renewable and nuclear generation has reduced the demand for natural gas in the electricity mix. In late October, the share of natural gas in the electricity mix was as low and equal to coal as it was during the lockdown.

The share of variable renewables in the electricity mix depends on many factors: operating wind and solar parks, weather conditions and aggregate demand. In some EU countries, notably Italy, Spain and Germany, new records were reached during the shutdown period. The share of variable renewables remained high as lockdown measures eased.

During the summer, several factors affected the renewable energy share, including demand patterns related to economic activity and residential cooling, higher solar supply and lower wind generation. As winter approaches, seasonal variation from sun to wind can be observed in many countries.